Solar sizing calculator · free · no sign-up

What size solar system do I need?

Start from your actual power bill and get an honest size for your home — in kilowatts and panels. Then the part most solar calculators skip: how much of that power you'll actually use, and what it takes to use more.

The sizing model

Your honest system size.

Built the way a scientist would size it: from your actual power use, your state's real sun, and Australian field research — shown as an honest range, not false precision.

Powermind sizing model calibrated to a measured 6.6 kW Canberra system
$450 a quarter · ≈ 15 kWh/day
2600 · solar zone 3
3 days a week · you'd use ~44% of your solar directly
Electric vehicles
0
Split-system aircons
0
Pool
No
Switch hot water to a heat pump
No
A heat pump replaces your electric system, so it usually lowers your use by ~1,800 kWh/yr.
A home like yours needs about
6.5–7.5 kW
≈ 15–17 panels
Your electricity use5,600 kWh/yr
This system would generate9,900 kWh/yr
Generation, summer vs winter~35 · ~15 kWh/day
You'd use directly (unmanaged)~45%
Solar you'd export for cents
~4,600 kWh a year
Worth only ~$280 at a feed-in tariff — the same power costs ~$1,500 to buy back at peak. Closing that gap is what Powermind does.

Sized on a yearly basis (the standard). Generation itself swings hard with the seasons — high in summer, roughly half in winter — so summer brings a big surplus you'll export for cents unless you use it. That's exactly what Powermind is for.

How this is worked out: generation from your Clean Energy Regulator solar zone — the same postcode zones used to work out solar rebates, anchored to a real measured 1,409 kWh per kW per year on a Canberra roof; self-consumption from UNSW SolarShift and ANU field data; 440 W panels; a 1.45× headroom over your yearly use. This is a free guide to help you ask better questions — not financial, electrical or design advice. Your roof, shading, budget and tariff all move the real number, so always confirm the right system with a CEC-accredited installer before you buy.
The catch most calculators skip

The size is only half the answer.

Getting the size right matters — but even a perfectly-sized system sends most of its power to the grid for cents, because it's made at noon while your home draws power morning and night. A kilowatt-hour of your own solar, used at home, is worth several times more than one exported.

4–10¢
a typical feed-in tariff — what you're paid to export a kWh
vs
28–48¢
a typical peak rate — what you pay to buy the same kWh back

So the real question isn't only what size — it's how much of it you keep. That's what Powermind is built to do: shift your hot water, car and aircon onto your surplus, automatically.

The evidence

These aren't our numbers. They're the research.

The sizing above, and the case for using your solar rather than exporting it, both rest on Australian energy research. A few of the voices behind it:

“More than half of Australian homes have an electric water heater with a storage tank — a thermal battery that often stores more energy than a home battery.”

University of New South Wales — Hot water heaters & daytime solar, 2024

“Close to 50% of water heating was successfully shifted from night to day. Most householders reported no noticeable change to their hot water service — only 0.3% of households opted out.”

UNSW SolarShift trial, 18,000 South Australian households (Yildiz & Saberi) — funded by ARENA & RACE for 2030

“Before spending $10,000+ on a battery, consider whether you can shift existing loads to solar hours. Shifting 5–10 kWh of daily load into solar hours effectively eliminates curtailment for most 6.6 kW systems — and costs nothing.”

Gridly — Australian solar export economics, 2026

Where the numbers come from

CSIRO & AEMO
4.2 million rooftop systems and 26.8 GW installed; distributed solar, batteries and EVs projected as the largest slice of the grid by 2050. 2024 Integrated System Plan.
UNSW SPREE
The SolarShift project: excess solar can meet ~48% of daily hot water demand at 100% customer comfort. PV Magazine.
ARENA
Demand Flexibility Portfolio: the largest household opportunities are hot water, air-conditioning and pool pumps — “shift heating into the middle of the day.”
Aust. Government
YourHome guide endorses pre-conditioning: “use air-conditioning to cool the mass during the day without cost or emissions.” yourhome.gov.au.
ANU
Battery Storage & Grid Integration Program (Dr Bjorn Sturmberg): residential self-consumption measured rising from 34% to 58% with coordinated storage.
Climate Council
2025 Battery Boom report on household solar-plus-storage economics and the widening export-vs-import gap.